把说过的话逐条登记，到期回访对账。这本册只做一件事：把各方说过的话逐条登记，核查节点到期逐条回访对账。Every claim on the record, checked when it comes due. This ledger does one thing: it records what each party said, entry by entry, and revisits each entry for reconciliation when its check point comes due.
记录类型：公司承诺（当事方明确作出的承诺）· 公司目标（当事方公布的目标）· 外部预测（媒体、分析师等提出的预期，非当事方承诺）· 已发生待核（事件已发生，但结果仍待核实）Record types: Company Commitment (a commitment made explicitly by the party itself) · Company Target (a target published by the party itself) · External Forecast (an expectation put forward by media, analysts and others, not a commitment by the party itself) · Occurred, Pending Verification (the event has occurred, but the outcome is still to be verified)
对账总览Ledger Overview截至 2026 年 11 月 2 日As of November 2, 2026
4条entries
在册条目Entries on the register
PL-001 至to PL-004 · 2026 年 10 月 31 日立册Entered on October 31, 2026
验证完成率 100%（1 / 1）：分母为全部已到期节点，当前到期项已全部完成复核确认Verification completion rate 100% (1 / 1): the denominator is all check points that have come due, and every item currently due has completed review and confirmation
最近到期节点Next check point due即将到期Due soon
PL-001 · 11 月 16 日当周Week of November 16
Anthropic 上市时点（WSJ 预期）· 14 天后进入核查周Anthropic IPO timing (WSJ expectation) · Enters its check week in 14 days
上面每个数字都能逐项对回下面的条目与节点。本册只逐条对账，不汇总兑现率；验证完成率只数到期项的复核进度，不代表承诺兑现。Every figure above can be traced back to the entries and check points below. This ledger reconciles entries one by one and does not aggregate a fulfilment rate; the verification completion rate counts only the review progress of items that have come due and does not represent whether promises were kept.
记录类型Record type
这一类目前暂无条目。条目入册时必带记录类型，有新增会先出现在这里。There are currently no entries of this type. Every entry carries a record type when it is entered; new entries of this type will appear here first.
上市时点的媒体预期（WSJ）：Anthropic 目标于 2026 年 11 月 16 日当周上市，时点仍可能变化。此条为媒体预期，不是当事方承诺。IPO timing, as expected by the Wall Street Journal: Anthropic is aiming to go public the week of November 16, 2026, though the timing could change. This entry records a media expectation, not a company commitment.
原始来源：Original source: WSJ《Anthropic Unveils Paperwork for Blockbuster IPO》，2026-10-26 · Wall Street Journal, "Anthropic Unveils Paperwork for Blockbuster IPO", October 26, 2026 · WSJ 原文WSJ original（关键句已核原文逐字；预期本身仍属媒体转述） (the key sentence was checked word for word against the original; the expectation itself remains media-reported)
将核对什么（登记时写明，到期照此判）What will be checked (set at entry, judged on this basis)
Anthropic 是否在 2026 年 11 月 16 日当周挂牌上市；若时点推移，记录推移后的实际上市日期。Whether Anthropic lists during the week of November 16, 2026; if the timing slips, the actual listing date is recorded.
对账时间线Reconciliation timeline
✓
2026-10-26
WSJ 报道发布，预期入册依据形成WSJ report published; the basis for this entry is formed
✓
2026-10-31
立册登记，同日按 WSJ 原文纠正事件性质（纠正记录见下方核查历史）Entered into the ledger; the nature of the event was corrected against the WSJ original the same day (see the verification history below)
2026 年 11 月 16 日当周Week of November 16, 2026下一个节点 · 即将到期Next check point · Due soon
核查节点：是否在该周挂牌上市Check point: whether it lists during that week
节点到期后After the point comes due
回访判定，结果记入本条Follow-up judgement, recorded in this entry
当前判定Current judgement尚未到期。Not yet due.此条为媒体预期，不是当事方承诺。 This entry is a media expectation, not a company commitment.下一次复核Next review2026 年 11 月 16 日当周Week of November 16, 2026
▸核查历史（只追加，不覆盖）Verification history (appended only, never overwritten)
2026-10-31立册，原记为「定价公布时点」预期，并合并 Fortune 口径。Entered into the ledger, originally recorded as a pricing announcement timing expectation and combined with the Fortune version.
2026-10-31核对 WSJ 原文后纠正：原报道说的是上市时点，不是定价时点（同篇明确写估值与发行规模未定）；Fortune 口径分拆为 PL-004。旧记保留于此，不覆盖。Corrected after checking the WSJ original: the report was about IPO timing, not pricing timing (the same article states that valuation and offering size were not yet set); the Fortune version was split out as PL-004. The original entry is kept here, not overwritten.
自愿离职安排，发言人对外口径：约 60,000 名员工合资格，决定窗为 2026 年 12 月第一周，离职于 2026 年 12 月 31 日生效。实际离职规模待决定窗关闭后核查。Voluntary Exit Offer. The spokesperson's public figures: about 60,000 employees eligible, a decision window in the first week of December 2026, and departures effective December 31, 2026. The actual scale of departures will be checked after the decision window closes.
原始来源：Original source: 微软官方博客《Introducing a Voluntary Exit Offer》（Amy Coleman，2026-10-26）· Microsoft Official Blog, "Introducing a Voluntary Exit Offer" (Amy Coleman, October 26, 2026) · 官方博客原文Official blog post。约 60,000 名合资格为 CNBC 报道口径，官方博文未给数字。. The figure of about 60,000 eligible employees is CNBC's reported figure; the official post gives no number.
将核对什么（登记时写明，到期照此判）What will be checked (set at entry, judged on this basis)
三项分开核：(1) 合资格人数，约 60,000（报道口径）；(2) 实际接受人数与接受率，微软发言人预期低于 5%，即少于约 3,000 人；(3) 实际离职人数，2026 年 12 月 31 日生效。三项不得互相顶替：合资格不是接受，接受不是离职完成。Checked as three separate items: (1) eligible headcount, about 60,000 (a reported figure); (2) actual acceptances and acceptance rate, against the spokesperson expectation of under 5%, i.e. fewer than about 3,000 people; (3) actual departures, effective December 31, 2026. The three must not stand in for one another: eligibility is not acceptance, and acceptance is not completed departure.
对账时间线Reconciliation timeline
✓
2026-10-26
微软官方博客公布自愿离职安排Microsoft announced the Voluntary Exit Offer on its official blog
✓
2026-10-31
立册登记，同日补记发言人接受率预期Entered into the ledger; the spokesperson's acceptance-rate expectation was added the same day
2026-12-07下一个节点Next check point
决定窗关闭后核查：合资格人数、接受人数与接受率After the decision window closes: eligible headcount, acceptances and acceptance rate
2026-12-31
离职生效日：核查实际离职人数Departures take effect: actual departures checked
2027-01-15
生效后复核，三项逐项判定Post-effective-date review: the three items judged one by one
当前判定Current judgement尚未到期。Not yet due.三项核查对象分开核，不互相顶替。 The three items are checked separately and do not stand in for one another.下一次复核Next review2026 年 12 月 7 日December 7, 2026（决定窗关闭后） (after the decision window closes)
▸核查历史（只追加，不覆盖）Verification history (appended only, never overwritten)
2026-10-26微软官方博客公布计划。Microsoft announced the program on its official blog.
2026-10-31立册；同日补记发言人接受率预期（Fortune 2026-10-30 引发言人称预计低于 5%；Seattle Times 口径为 3% 至 5%、少于约 3,000 人；CFO Amy Hood 亦有 3,000 人或以下口径，多源一致）。该预期是微软自家口径，记入本条作核查对象，不另立外部预测条。Entered into the ledger; the spokesperson's acceptance-rate expectation was added the same day (Fortune, October 30, 2026, quoted a spokesperson expecting under 5%; the Seattle Times put it at 3% to 5%, fewer than about 3,000 people; CFO Amy Hood also gave a figure of 3,000 or fewer; the sources agree). The expectation is Microsoft's own figure, recorded here as an item to be checked, not as a separate external forecast entry.
股份发行定价总额 375 亿美元，分两腿：存托股 125 亿美元已于 2026 年 10 月 29 日交割；普通股 250 亿美元为远期出售，现金交割不迟于 2027 年 11 月 19 日。Share offering priced at $37.5B in total, in two legs: $12.5B of depositary shares settled on October 29, 2026; $25B of common stock sold forward, with cash settlement on or before November 19, 2027.
原始来源：Original source: Meta 官方公告（PR Newswire 定价公告，2026-10-26）与交割文件口径，见研究稿《同一天的三本账》· Meta's official announcement (PR Newswire pricing announcement, October 26, 2026) and the wording of the settlement documents, as covered in the research piece "Three Ledgers, One Day" · 官方公告全文转载Full text of the official announcement
将核对什么（登记时写明，到期照此判）What will be checked (set at entry, judged on this basis)
两个里程碑分开核：(1) 存托股一腿交割（2026-10-29）；(2) 普通股远期出售在 2027 年 11 月 19 日或之前结算，核对实际到账金额（公告口径预计约 249 亿美元，受远期价格调整条款影响）与最终股数。Two milestones, checked separately: (1) settlement of the $12.5B depositary share offering on October 29, 2026; (2) settlement of the $25B forward sale on or before November 19, 2027, checking the cash actually received (announced expectation: about $24.9B, subject to the forward price adjustment provisions) and the final share count.
对账时间线Reconciliation timeline
✓
2026-10-26
Meta 公布发行定价，总额 375 亿美元Meta announced the offering pricing, $37.5B in total
✓
2026-10-29
里程碑一：存托股 125 亿美元交割完成，已核实Milestone 1: the $12.5B depositary share leg settled, verified
✓
2026-10-31
立册登记Entered into the ledger
2027-11-19 或之前On or before November 19, 2027下一个节点Next check point
里程碑二：普通股 250 亿美元远期出售结算（结算日由 Meta 自选）Milestone 2: settlement of the $25B forward sale of common stock (the settlement date is Meta's choice)
结算发生后After settlement occurs
终判：实际到账金额与最终股数Final judgement: cash actually received and final share count
当前判定Current judgement里程碑一已核实Milestone 1 verified：存托股一腿于 2026 年 10 月 29 日交割。里程碑二尚未到期，本条不作整体兑现判定。: the depositary share leg settled on October 29, 2026. Milestone 2 is not yet due, and no overall fulfilment judgement is made for this entry.下一次复核Next review2027 年 11 月 19 日或之前On or before November 19, 2027（远期结算发生时） (when the forward settlement occurs)
▸核查历史（只追加，不覆盖）Verification history (appended only, never overwritten)
2026-10-26Meta 公布发行定价。Meta announced the pricing.
2026-10-29存托股一腿交割。The depositary share leg settled.
上市时点的媒体预期（Fortune）：Anthropic 预计于感恩节当周（2026 年 11 月 23 日起）挂牌上市。与 WSJ 口径（11 月 16 日当周）相差一周，两家分开登记。此条为媒体预期，不是当事方承诺。IPO timing, as expected by Fortune: a market debut planned for Thanksgiving week, starting November 23, 2026. The two outlets' weeks differ by one week, so they are recorded as separate entries. This entry records a media expectation, not a company commitment.
原始来源：Original source: Fortune《Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows $16.3 billion in revenue, an $80.7 billion net loss》，2026-10-26（原文付费墙，无直达链接；感恩节当周上市表述经六家以上独立二手源一致转引）Fortune, "Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows $16.3 billion in revenue, an $80.7 billion net loss", October 26, 2026 (the original is paywalled and there is no direct link; the Thanksgiving week debut wording is consistently quoted by six or more independent secondary sources)
将核对什么（登记时写明，到期照此判）What will be checked (set at entry, judged on this basis)
Anthropic 是否在感恩节当周挂牌上市；若时点推移，记录推移后的实际上市日期。Whether Anthropic lists during Thanksgiving week; if the timing slips, the actual listing date is recorded.
对账时间线Reconciliation timeline
✓
2026-10-26
Fortune 报道发布Fortune report published
✓
2026-10-31
自 PL-001 分拆立册Split out from PL-001 and entered as its own entry
2026 年 11 月 23 日当周Week of November 23, 2026下一个节点Next check point
核查节点：是否在感恩节当周挂牌上市Check point: whether it lists during Thanksgiving week
节点到期后After the point comes due
回访判定，结果记入本条Follow-up judgement, recorded in this entry
当前判定Current judgement尚未到期。Not yet due.此条为媒体预期，不是当事方承诺。 This entry is a media expectation, not a company commitment.下一次复核Next review2026 年 11 月 23 日当周Week of November 23, 2026
▸核查历史（只追加，不覆盖）Verification history (appended only, never overwritten)
2026-10-31自 PL-001 分拆立册（原与 WSJ 口径合并登记，且事件性质误记为定价时点）。Split out from PL-001, where it had been recorded together with the WSJ version and the event mischaracterized as pricing timing.
怎么读这本册How to read this ledger
新闻列表记的是发生了什么；这本册记的是说过的话到了日子兑现没有。每条入册时就把核查节点和判定口径写死在条目里，读的时候先看时间线走到哪一步，再看判定。A news list records what happened; this ledger records whether what was said was delivered when the date arrived. Each entry fixes its check points and its judgement basis at entry time. Read the timeline first to see where an entry stands, then the judgement.
一1
到期必复核Due means checked
每条登记时先写明核查节点与「将核对什么」，节点一到逐条回访，照登记时的口径判，不在到期后改口径；口径确需调整，先在核查历史里写明理由。Every entry states its check points and what will be checked at entry time. When a point comes due, the entry is revisited and judged on the basis recorded at entry, never on a basis changed after the fact; if the basis must change, the reason is written into the verification history first.
二2
判定只按一手证据Judgements rest only on primary evidence
核查结果只认原始出处与正式文件。证据等级逐条标注；媒体转述的预期明标「外部预测」，一眼可知不是当事方承诺，不与公司承诺混排判定。Verification results rest only on original sources and official documents. The evidence grade is marked on every entry; media expectations are marked External Forecast, so they are visibly not company commitments and are not judged alongside them.
三3
历史只追加，不覆盖History is appended, never overwritten
记错、判错都在原条下方订正，旧记与纠正理由一起留在核查历史里。PL-001 入册当天的纠正就是现成的例子，点开它的核查历史就能看到。Errors in recording or judgement are corrected below the original entry, with the old record and the reason for the correction kept together in the verification history. The correction made to PL-001 on its entry day is a ready example: open its verification history to see it.
四4
只给可对账的计数Only counts that can be reconciled
本页顶部的数字（在册条目、核查节点、已完成复核）都能逐项对回条目。本册不汇总兑现率；验证完成率只数到期项的复核进度。Every figure at the top of this page (entries on the register, check points, completed reviews) can be traced back to individual entries. This ledger does not aggregate a fulfilment rate; the verification completion rate counts only the review progress of items that have come due.
「已过期未核」只表示复核尚未完成，不表示承诺失败。本页只逐条对账，不显示汇总兑现率。"Overdue, not yet checked" means the review is not yet complete. It does not mean the promise failed. This page reconciles entries one by one and shows no aggregate fulfilment rate.
